On March 9, 2002, the Los Angeles Times revealed the Pentagon's secret war plans for developing, deploying, and using a new breed of nuclear weapons against seven countries.[i] The LA Times’ article was followed by a front-page report in the New York Times further detailing these plans. The Pentagon’s ambitious nuclear battle plans, based on the leaked classified U.S. Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), have stunned the world and threaten to unleash renewed nuclear arms race and an era global instability.[ii]

The Pentagon’s Nuclear Battle Plans: 

Based on the September 2000 Congressional request for reassessment of U.S. nuclear weapons policy, the Administration prepared the current NPR. Some unclassified portions of the document were released in a Pentagon press briefing on January 9, 2002, after a classified version of the report was sent to the Congress. During the January 9 press briefing, J. D. Crouch, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy, attempted to highlight President Bush’s desire for reduction in U.S. nuclear arsenal and the need for a “capabilities-based force” to meet the post Cold War challenges to U.S. security.[iii] During this briefing Secretary Crouch gave no indication of the Pentagon’s nuclear battle plans and, for the most part dodged reporters’ questions about the U.S. plan to develop a new class of miniaturized and more usable nuclear devices.

The Pentagon’s real plans, as the press reports based on the leaked NPR indicate, actually belie President Bush’s repeated assertion that nuclear weapons are “relics of the Cold War” and his policy of reduced reliance on nuclear weapons. The leaked document makes it clear the President and the Defense Department have no such intentions. On the contrary, they plan to develop and define a new role for these weapons of ultimate destruction and even use them in conventional warfare.

In the 56 page classified NPR obtained by the LA Times and The New York Times, the Pentagon outlines a list of contingencies and targets where nuclear weapons might be used. Listing seven countries, China, Russia, Iraq, North Korea, Iran, Libya and Syria, as potential nuclear targets, the leaked NPR indicates that:[iv]

·         Nuclear weapons could be used in three types of situations: against targets able to withstand non-nuclear attack; in retaliation for attack with nuclear, biological or chemical weapons; or “in the event of surprising military developments.”

·         The Pentagon should be prepared to use nuclear weapons during an Arab-Israel conflict, an Iraqi attack on Israel, or its neighbors, a North Korean attack on South Korea or a military confrontation between China and Taiwan (a scenario in which Chinese leaders may try to forcefully integrate Taiwan with the mainland China).

·         Countries such as Iran, Syria and Libya could be involved in immediate, potential or unexpected contingencies requiring “nuclear strike capabilities.”

·         The United States should be prepared to launch a nuclear strike to destroy stocks of weapons of mass destruction, such as biological and chemical arms.

The NPR also suggests the need for developing a new generation of nuclear devices to be integrated into U.S. war-fighting strategy for much wider uses than for deterrence. Specifically, it recommends development of new nuclear weapons called Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (RNEP) to be used against hardened and deeply buried targets such as caves or bunkers and suggests that the U.S. may have to resume nuclear testing for development of these weapons.

The Implications of the NPR for U.S. and Global Security

These are dangerous plans which are not only in violation of U.S. obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), if left unchecked, are sure to lead to a global nuclear arms race, the resumption of nuclear testing and, most importantly, make the use of nuclear weapons more likely. For instance, the Pentagon’s nuclear war plans include contingencies for using nuclear weapons against five non-unclear weapon states that are signatories to the NPT.  Iraq, North Korea, Iran, Libya and Syria are all parties to the NPT and have not been shown to possess nuclear weapons. Prior to the 1995 NPT Review Conference the United States committed not to target any non-nuclear weapons states unless it attacks the United States or U.S. allies in alliance with a nuclear weapon state. This pledge was further formalized by all nuclear weapon states, including the U.S., in the United Nations Security Council Resolution 984.

Under the NPT, the United States is also legally obligated to take “effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date.” Further, at the 2000 NPT Review Conference, the U.S. committed to an “unequivocal undertaking” to eliminate nuclear weapons and to a diminishing role for nuclear weapons in security policies. The current NPR violates each of these commitments by highlighting the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. defense policy, defining new mission and targeting plans for U.S. nuclear forces, and calling for the production and testing of new nuclear weapons.

Most importantly, the NPR attempts to blur the distinction between nuclear and conventional weapons. In the current NPR, use of nuclear weapons is not limited to deterrence, nor is it taboo as the ultimate weapon of horror. This NPR views nuclear weapons as just another weapon available to U.S. forces. Notwithstanding the negative health and environmental consequences associated with the use of a nuclear device, regardless of its yield, the attempts by the world’s sole superpower, the United States, to develop and deploy ‘usable’ nuclear weapons, will only convince other countries of the perceived military utility of these weapons. This will simply encourage other nations to acquire and use nuclear weapons.

Equally dangerous is the NPR’s suggestion that the U.S. may resume nuclear testing. The United States currently maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing and, while it has not ratified, the U.S. has signed the CTBT. Resumption of nuclear testing by the United States is sure to cause a domestic outrage and anger our European allies all of whom have ratified the Treaty. Such action will also encourage other countries, including Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and many others, to follow the U.S. lead igniting a nuclear arms race on a global scale.

The plans and recommendations outlined in the current NPR are truly dangerous for the U.S. and global security. The U.S. plans for developing battle-ready nuclear weapons, resumption of nuclear testing, and war planning to use nuclear weapons in conventional warfare can only lead to other nations ultimately following a similar path. This, most certainly, will lead us into a world ever more dangerous than that witnessed during the Cold War. Such plans will reduce, not enhance, U.S. security and could bring nuclear war out of the theoretical realm into reality.